I truthfully have no idea how to begin this so I’m going to wing it and hope my ravings are somewhat coherent. This is the first in a series of sleeper articles, predicated on the belief that a trained monkey can draft the first 2 rounds of a fantasy football draft. The mid-late rounds are where your league is won and lost; my goal is to shine some light on guys I think will help you conquer those rounds and stand atop the smoldering heap when it’s all over. The first is my favorite sleeper for 2013: Lamar Miller.

I’ll hopefully be writing a series of articles detailing how I analyze and draft each position but running back is one in particular where the breakout players are actually pretty identifiable if you know where to look; Miller possesses a lot of those good characteristics and I’ll outline them below. Coming into the league, Miller was graded as a 1st/early 2nd round talent with a few knocks. Most notably: a shoulder injury, some character questions and a concern that his pass blocking (or lack thereof) would keep him off the field… but there was no denying his speed and playmaking ability. While he got nothing more than a handful of carries last year behind Reggie Bush (averaging 4.9 YPC), the Dolphins think so highly of him in 2013 that they let Bush leave in free agency and are giving Miller a crack at the gig. Here’s some reasons why you should care:

Lamar Miller is a major home run threat

If touches are going to be limited, there’s nothing I want more than a home run threat. Feed the ball enough times to guys like Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, C.J. Spiller, Adrian Peterson etc. and they will eventually make a big play and take one to the house. Even if they’re only getting 10-ish touches a game, they can still produce enough juice in that small sample to justify a fantasy start. I’d take a guy like that over someone getting 18 carries and averaging 3-point-nothing (like most of the RBs Philbin had while in Green Bay). While Miller might not possess the lateral agility of the guys listed above (although he’s working hard on it this off-season with Frank Gore), he’s every bit as much of a big play threat. Now, consider that if you just give Miller the touches he and Bush accumulated last year, he’s already getting the ball 20 times a game; that means ample opportunities to hit fantasy pay dirt for a guy with the skills to take advantage. See where this is going?

Daniel Thomas poses no threat to overtake Miller as starter

Sure, Thomas will vulture some goal line carries but every time he’s been given a workload, he’s struggled immensely (3.5 career YPC) and has justified his place on the bench. There’s nothing worse casino online than drafting a stud talent only to watch him buried behind a mediocre veteran for most of the year (see Spiller, C.J.) That’s a risk with any player who profiles as a first-time “feature” like Miller but don’t worry here. Miller doesn’t have a huge frame but he’s bigger, runs behinds his pads fairly well, has more power than the average speed back and looks poised to handle the workload. Even assuming Thomas keeps last year’s workload (100 touches), that still leaves over 300 touches there for the taking which is a very, very good thing.

The Dolphins are bending over backwards to praise Miller’s improvement in pass protection

Both Tannehill and Philbin have gone out of their way to praise Miller in this area which is absolutely huge for his development into a feature back. Almost 90% of Miller’s carries last year were on 1st/2nd down so clearly it was an area of concern that restricted his opportunities. If he’s showing an ability to stay on the field for all 3 downs, it solidifies the volume he requires to be a fantasy star. Obviously that’s a big if but I’m taking the Dolphins at their word for now. While he might not be an amazing receiver yet, he’s competent enough to produce in that category; at a level below Bush (who has been a glorified receiver out of the backfield for most of his career), but still relevant for fantasy purposes. If he ends up being a better receiver than advertised, his upside explodes.

The Dolphins offense is improving

Yes, losing Jake Long hurts on paper but in reality, Long was a shell of his former self last year. Jonathan Martin (cue the groans from Dolphins fans) scares the crap out of me at left tackle but I’d be more concerned that he’ll get Ryan Tannehill killed than Miller. Their shaky LT situation aside, Tannehill looks poised to take another step forward in his development and has new weapons in Wallace and Keller to grow with. The threat of Tannehill’s arm and Wallace’s speed should help open up the vertical parts of the Dolphins offense in a big way which will greatly benefit Miller by giving him space. Coupled with an improving defense that should keep the offense on the field more, Miami looks to improve in 2013 which opens up more opportunities for everyone.

Miller’s ADP: (Mock Draft Central – 39.00, RB18) (NFFC – 46.51, RB22)

Clearly the NFFC (1 PPR) is assuming that Miller isn’t going to be much Temple drivers ed of Motoring Clontarf reserves the right to terminate your access to any or all of the Communication Services at any time without notice for any reason whatsoever. of a pass catching back and it’s a fair assumption to be made given his history. Even assuming his ratio of rushes to receptions last year holds somewhat true (51 rushes, 6 receptions), with a bit of improvement this off-season and the increased workload he should still end up in the 20s which won’t cripple him. Why then is he going a full round behind guys like Ridley (who doesn’t catch any passes and may lose touches due to an increased workload for Shane Vereen) or David Wilson (who had even less receptions than Miller last year, has fumble issues and should get major carries siphoned by Andre Brown) just to name a couple? Don’t get me wrong, I think both could be valuable fantasy players this year but do I see an extra round of value there? Nope. It doesn’t make sense to me.

If Miller gets 300 touches (which seems like a legitimate possibility) and averages 5 yards per touch (which is easily doable by a guy with the breakaway speed for big plays), you’re looking at a 1,500 yard back with double digit touchdown potential. Sure, Miller is a risk given that he’s never handled a full workload before and his pass pro isn’t a proven commodity yet but I see fantasy star written all over him; he’s a perfect case of ability and opportunity colliding. When you’re drafting him in the 3rd/early 4th you’re paying for him as a decent RB2 but barring injury, I believe he ends the year near (and maybe in) the Top 10 at RB and is a star in the making. My love of Lamar Miller in fantasy this year might border on irrational but I’m all aboard his bandwagon. You should be too.

Update 8/20: The Dolphins are saying that the competition is neck and neck between Miller and Thomas for the starting job. Again, let me reiterate – Daniel Thomas is not good. He”s a big guy who runs as soft as Charmin and has both fumble and durability concerns. Jeff Ireland keeps talking Thomas up because he gave up 3 picks to move up to get him in the 2nd round a couple years ago and right now he looks like a colossal bust. I”m assuming that this talk is a combination of that and wanting to light a fire under Lamar Miller after a few pre-season mistakes because Miller is clearly more talented. Even if it does end up a timeshare at first, Thomas will likely play himself out of a role (again) or Miller”s talent will win out. Either way, as dumb as the Dolphins may be, don”t be too concerned yet. More than likely, this will just lower Miller”s ADP and make him an even more attractive bargain.