A departure from my normal rambling style, this series will be a few quick hits about guys that I like/dislike this year. I’m really tempted to write more but I think this is pretty self-explanatory; without further ado…
Take
Cam Newton (ADP 49.49, QB5): Cam Newton stunk to start the year last year, so much so that some people missed his monster second half. Projecting his last 8 games out to a full year and Cam would be at: 3934 passing yards, 26 TD, 8 INT | 788 rushing yards, 8 TD. Even in a QB friendly scoring system like NFBC, that guy right there is your 2012 #1 fantasy QB folks. And before you accuse me of projecting too much, take a look at Cam’s 2011 stats and realize that aside from the reduced turnovers, that projection is right in line with what he did TWO years ago (and he’s only getting better). Even if Newton runs the option less as is being suggested, his passing numbers should get better with the extra volume and help make up the difference. Think the risk inherent with Cam is worth giving up over 2 rounds of value at the top of the draft? I don’t.
Matthew Stafford (ADP 66.90, QB7): Another 2012 disappointment, Stafford let owners down in a big way by throwing 21 less TDs in 2012 than he did in 2011. What’s there to like about Stafford, then, in 2013? The Lions throw the ball and they throw it a lot. They led the This by zydot shampoo is present in the urine for up to 80 hours. league in passing attempts in 2011 and in 2012 set the single season attempt record with 740. That isn’t a typo, that’s absurdity. While I wouldn’t expect a repeat, even 650 passes would’ve put him 2nd in the NFL last year casino online behind Drew Brees. Stafford 2011 and Stafford 2012 are darn near equal in yardage (near 5,000) and INTs (16/17); the TDs just weren’t there last year. Yes, his mechanics got sloppy casino online and lazy at times last year (weren’t they in 2011 as well?) and he hasn’t had a great camp but my bet is that the guy who put up 41 TDs the year before and is slinging it over 40 times a game won’t put up a second season with 20 TDs. Even if you don’t want to bet on Stafford, do you really want to bet that Calvin Johnson is good for only 5 TDs this year? The addition of Reggie Bush electrifies the offense and Larry Warford will hopefully be a capable replacement for Stephen Peterman who allowed more pressure than any other starting guard last year. There’s a ton of fantasy points to go around in Detroit and Stafford is going to be the one with the ball in his hands.
Leave
Aaron Rodgers (ADP 18.67, QB1): Don’t get me wrong, I love Rodgers, but between the issues with his supporting cast and the fact that depth at QB is as thick as mama’s meatloaf this year, I’m likely passing unless he falls well below his ADP. When your opponent is taking elite players at other positions in the 2nd (around that ADP, guys like Graham, Morris, Bay Bay Thomas, etc.) and filling in QB with elite upside guys like Kaepernick/Wilson/RGIII/Luck in the 5th/6th, you’re not going to have an easy time making up that ground with the WR/RBs left at that point. Losing Bryan Bulaga (with a rookie replacement) on a line that gave up 51 sacks last year is a brutal blow and including Jennings’ FA exit and Jordy Nelson’s bulky knee, there are a lot of questions about GB’s offense. Can Rodgers succeed despite the adversity? Sure, he’s done it before, but it might mean very good numbers instead of outstanding. That’s not what I want from my QB if I’m taking him in the mid-2nd in a draft teeming with QB talent and upside. Rodgers will almost assuredly be a great player to own in 2013… but taking him in the 2nd isn’t going to lead to many great teams. Let someone else pay a premium at QB this year.