Author Archives: Spectre

Take It or Leave It: WR
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Take Larry Fitzgerald (ADP 29.7, WR10): I get it. I feel your pain. I found myself with my hand caught in the cookie jar last year when I tried to bid Larry Fitzgerald up in an auction (when I wanted nothing to do with him) and ended my playoffs with him on the bench. One of the hardest things to do in fantasy football is to try to look at something objectively when you’ve been burned but I’m going to be brave and say it: when his QB situation isn’t absolute trash, Larry Fitzgerald is a Top 5 WR. Literally. Excluding his rookie season, Larry Fitzgerald has not been in the Top 5 in WR points three times in his career: in 2006 (Matt Leinart), 2010 (Derek Anderson/John Skelton) and 2012 when he dealt with one of the worst QB situations I’ve ever seen (Skelton/Kolb/Hoyer/Lindley). This year he has Carson Palmer who, while turnover prone, airs it out like crazy as well and shouldn’t resemble last year’s disaster. Bruce Arians had Andrew Luck passing over 4,000 yards last year and there’s no reason to think Palmer can’t as well. Floyd and Roberts should be improved enough to draw some coverage away from Fitz and give him more legitimate opportunities. All this is to say: I’m not betting against Larry Fitzgerald to finish out of the Top 5 again. He’s still young (29) and his skill set hasn’t diminished, he’s Arizona’s go-to guy by far and he’s incredibly consistent when his QB situation is acceptable. The fact that you can get him in the 3rd and add nearly a full round of value vs. players without his incredible track record is icing on the cake. It’s OK Larry; I’m not holding 2012 against you. Pierre Garcon (ADP 63.95, WR24): When we … Click here to continue reading…

Take It or Leave It: RB
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Take Trent Richardson (ADP 8.84, RB9): Richardson is a hard guy to include because the injury risk could make this blow up in my face but I’m going to do it anyway, mainly because I could write about the Browns all day… and because he’s going to be a fantasy football stud. Norv Turner (more on him later) has come out and said he’s targeting at least 300 carries and 60 catches for Richardson this year. Assuming he’s healthy enough to average even a measly 4.0 YPC (last year’s 3.6 was a fluke brought on by playing hurt), that’s enough volume for over 1600 all purpose yards, extra points in a PPR, double digit TDs and if he can improve his YPC even more, the sky is the limit. If that doesn’t sell you enough, take a look at what Norv’s RBs have done with him as OC: 1991 – Emmitt Smith: 1563 rushing yards (led NFL), 258 receiving yards, 13 TDs 1992 – Emmitt Smith: 1713 rushing yards (led NFL), 335 receiving yards, 18 TDs 1993 – Emmitt Smith: 1486 rushing yards (led NFL), 414 receiving yards, 10 TDs 2001 – LaDainian Tomlinson: 1236 rushing yards, 367 receiving yards, 10 TDs 2002 – Ricky Williams: 1853 rushing yards (led NFL), 363 receiving yards, 17 TDs 2003 – Ricky Williams: 1372 rushing yards, 351 receiving yards, 10 TDs 2006 – Frank Gore: 1695 rushing yards, 485 receiving yards, 9 TDs 2013 – Trent Richardson: ??? You’re reading that right: with Norv as OC, his starting RB has never put up below 1,600 all-purpose yards and double digit touchdowns (except that slacker Gore who only got 9 TDs as he ran for 2,180 APY). His RBs are more likely to put up 1,800 APY and lead the NFL in rushing than … Click here to continue reading…

Take It or Leave It: QB
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A departure from my normal rambling style, this series will be a few quick hits about guys that I like/dislike this year. I’m really tempted to write more but I think this is pretty self-explanatory; without further ado… Take Cam Newton (ADP 49.49, QB5): Cam Newton stunk to start the year last year, so much so that some people missed his monster second half. Projecting his last 8 games out to a full year and Cam would be at: 3934 passing yards, 26 TD, 8 INT | 788 rushing yards, 8 TD. Even in a QB friendly scoring system like NFBC, that guy right there is your 2012 #1 fantasy QB folks. And before you accuse me of projecting too much, take a look at Cam’s 2011 stats and realize that aside from the reduced turnovers, that projection is right in line with what he did TWO years ago (and he’s only getting better). Even if Newton runs the option less as is being suggested, his passing numbers should get better with the extra volume and help make up the difference. Think the risk inherent with Cam is worth giving up over 2 rounds of value at the top of the draft? I don’t. Matthew Stafford (ADP 66.90, QB7): Another 2012 disappointment, Stafford let owners down in a big way by throwing 21 less TDs in 2012 than he did in 2011. What’s there to like about Stafford, then, in 2013? The Lions throw the ball and they throw it a lot. They led the This by zydot shampoo is present in the urine for up to 80 hours. league in passing attempts in 2011 and in 2012 set the single season attempt record with 740. That isn’t a typo, that’s absurdity. While I wouldn’t expect a repeat, even 650 … Click here to continue reading…

2013 Fantasy Football Sleeper: Lamar Miller
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I truthfully have no idea how to begin this so I’m going to wing it and hope my ravings are somewhat coherent. This is the first in a series of sleeper articles, predicated on the belief that a trained monkey can draft the first 2 rounds of a fantasy football draft. The mid-late rounds are where your league is won and lost; my goal is to shine some light on guys I think will help you conquer those rounds and stand atop the smoldering heap when it’s all over. The first is my favorite sleeper for 2013: Lamar Miller. I’ll hopefully be writing a series of articles detailing how I analyze and draft each position but running back is one in particular where the breakout players are actually pretty identifiable if you know where to look; Miller possesses a lot of those good characteristics and I’ll outline them below. Coming into the league, Miller was graded as a 1st/early 2nd round talent with a few knocks. Most notably: a shoulder injury, some character questions and a concern that his pass blocking (or lack thereof) would keep him off the field… but there was no denying his speed and playmaking ability. While he got nothing more than a handful of carries last year behind Reggie Bush (averaging 4.9 YPC), the Dolphins think so highly of him in 2013 that they let Bush leave in free agency and are giving Miller a crack at the gig. Here’s some reasons why you should care: Lamar Miller is a major home run threat If touches are going to be limited, there’s nothing I want more than a home run threat. Feed the ball enough times to guys like Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, C.J. Spiller, Adrian Peterson etc. and they will eventually make a big … Click here to continue reading…

Drafting the Position: How to Avoid Getting Blindsided at QB
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It’s not hard to end up with a handful of good players; if you don’t, you might want to consider a new hobby. Most teams will draft a roster full of several studs and some gaping holes that they try for the rest of the season to fill via waivers. While it’s possible to win like that if you play your cards right, the team that drafts a quality roster from top to bottom has a much easier path and has the luxury of using waivers to improve depth instead of fishing for starters. This comes from competent drafters that understand how they want to address each position, where they want to address it and maximizing the value that they’re getting with each pick. Let’s get the ball rolling with one of the most important positions to get right: QB. Hopefully this article gets you asking some of the questions that need to be considered during draft prep if you want to dominate. *Unless you’re in a 2 QB league because I don’t get along with that format and refuse to discuss it.* With that disclaimer out of the way, let’s roll… Know thine scoring system Comparing QB rankings from site to site is a royal pain, namely because it seems like every site has their own tweaks on how to score the position. WR/RB/TE are generally the same across the board; the only major variable being whether or not the league is PPR. QB is a whole different beast. The NFFC defaults are: 1 point per 20 passing yards, 6 per TD, -2 per INT, and the usually rushing defaults but what happens when you’re in a league that gives 4 points for TD and doesn’t care about INTs? Counts sacks as -1? 1 point per 25 passing yards? … Click here to continue reading…