It’s not hard to end up with a handful of good players; if you don’t, you might want to consider a new hobby. Most teams will draft a roster full of several studs and some gaping holes that they try for the rest of the season to fill via waivers. While it’s possible to win like that if you play your cards right, the team that drafts a quality roster from top to bottom has a much easier path and has the luxury of using waivers to improve depth instead of fishing for starters. This comes from competent drafters that understand how they want to address each position, where they want to address it and maximizing the value that they’re getting with each pick. Let’s get the ball rolling with one of the most important positions to get right: QB. Hopefully this article gets you asking some of the questions that need to be considered during draft prep if you want to dominate. *Unless you’re in a 2 QB league because I don’t get along with that format and refuse to discuss it.* With that disclaimer out of the way, let’s roll…

Know thine scoring system

Comparing QB rankings from site to site is a royal pain, namely because it seems like every site has their own tweaks on how to score the position. WR/RB/TE are generally the same across the board; the only major variable being whether or not the league is PPR. QB is a whole different beast. The NFFC defaults are: 1 point per 20 passing yards, 6 per TD, -2 per INT, and the usually rushing defaults but what happens when you’re in a league that gives 4 points for TD and doesn’t care about INTs? Counts sacks as -1? 1 point per 25 passing yards? The list can go on infinitely depending on how quirky your commish is but the point is this: the ADP, rankings and importance of the position in general can change slightly OR significantly depending on how your league scores QBs. Does a runner like Cam or a passer like Peyton hold more weight in your league? It’s a point that is simple and understood by most but I’d feel remiss in excluding it because if you screw this up, you’re already behind most of your competition… and they will show you no mercy.

Understand the tiers

QBs usually go in clumps (tiers) because people race to get “their guy” as soon as a perceived run starts. Whether it’s based on tier, rankings or whatever, the ideal of drafting a one-starter position that can be forgotten about at the highest scoring position in fantasy football is on everyone’s mind; no one wants to mess up at QB. This year in the NFFC ADP the tiers at the moment look like this: (Rodgers/Brees) (P. Manning/Brady/Ryan/Newton) (Kaepernick/Stafford/Wilson/Luck/RGIII) (The rest). Use ADP or your own rankings but having points where the talent level dips significantly in your mind or in the minds of others is extremely important. As a tier begins to dwindle or you hit the end of one and onto the next, it’s a signal for you to act or at least consider the situation. By acting in a proactive manner, you can avoid the bungling the position and at the very least, be happy with your player even if the value isn’t perfect. Before being overzealous and forcing a QB to the top of the casino online draft however, you should really…

Choose your spot

For the QB position, evaluate: how many of these guys are you comfortable with as your starting QB? How risk averse are you at QB vs. other positions? At some point in every draft you need to take risk if you want to build a great roster. Decide what position (QB or otherwise) you feel most confident in gambling on and act accordingly. If you’re risk averse at QB and you like to have a sure thing, target the Tier 1 guys. You know what you’re getting: a safe proven player with a known ceiling. Realize though that because of their low upside, you’re going to have to gamble elsewhere to make up for the fact that you used one of your biggest assets on a QB and that his value doesn’t have much room to grow. Generally every Top 12/14 QB drafted is going to start for his team, have the ball in his hands most of the game and be in the top half of the players nbso at his position. That’s a VERY different level of confidence vs. other positions where questions about playing time, touches, utilization, etc. all come into play. If you feel that you can make it up later with sleepers or you have confidence in drafting the other positions then great; just be aware, again, that drafting a safe player at one position necessitates taking risk in another.

The flip side of the coin is deciding to take your risk at QB and loading up on other positions. There’s a TON of upside in the later tier QBs (more so this year than any year in recent memory in my opinion). Analyze, analyze, analyze. Look at 2nd half trends, offensive improvements, room to grow, etc. Taking the right guy later while spending early picks on studs at RB/WR/TE could lead to a fantasy championship. There’s also the risk that if your guys flops, the highest scoring position in the game is an underperformer for you. A top QB will generally outscore top performers at every other position (depending on the scoring system obviously). You’re locking that performance in with a top guy. If you decide not to take that path; understand your potential downside. If you bust at QB, it’s harder to recover than at any other position, namely because most QBs keep their jobs throughout the season, injuries aren’t that likely and most of the top talent is already snatched up.

Determining where your risk aversion lies related to QB is incredibly important because once you determine it and the path you’re taking, it will impact your entire draft.

Don’t be dumb with your backup

Every year, the fantasy gods cry because resources are wasted on backup QBs while other teams starve at the position. If you draft someone like Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees, there is ZERO reason (unless you’re in a trade league and then by all means, ignore me here) for you to draft a guy like Eli Manning as a backup. Those two have missed a combined 4 games over 14 seasons and you should fully expect to only need a bye week replacement that can be found on waivers or later in the draft. If you’re intending to play matchups with a top QB, you’re doing it wrong. Don’t do it just to bet against a 2008 Brady scenario either. You’ll ruin far more leagues by wasting the value than you’ll save by betting on a ridiculously rare outcome. You’re most likely to get injured at RB and WR and TE. Draft a backup there instead.

So, when should you draft a good backup QB? If your starter…

– Is unproven and a risky upside play
– Is a low ceiling player and you want to gamble on some upside
– Is an injury risk and you don’t expect him to make it through a season unscathed
– If there’s no one else you like at all and the value is absurd
– If “that guy” is sandbagging taking a starter into the twilight of the draft and you want to punish him

I’m probably forgetting something but not drafting a good backup for a “question mark QB” is even worse than wasting an asset for ultimate security. You know the odds are significant that with RGIII you could see your playoff hopes destroyed by a knee injury. Don’t take that risk. Get a legitimate backup and breathe easier every week.

(Side note but not worth its own bullet: Know who has drafted a QB already. If no one in between you and your next pick needs one (and it’s not early enough for them to consider a backup), you can let it ride until that pick and maximize value. Same if there are 2 you like and only 1 above you needs one, etc. It’ll work every time unless people violate the above point and draft a guy like RGIII to back up Rodgers. In that case, scowl at them intensely.)

That’s about it on QBs. Understand the players and their upside/downside, choose your strategy and targets, then execute while mitigating your risk as much as possible and maintaining value. This may be basic strategy for every position but nowhere is it more important than at QB, where you likely shape your entire draft based on your decisions. Choose wisely.