2013 Top 25 Players Overall
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RotoSaurus has released its first set of rankings for the 2013 season, the 2013 Top 25 Overall list. You can either click on the link or use the permanent link in casino online the main menu bar at the top of any page. Dusty, Brad, and Spectre have all completed their own separate rankings (which you can also view on that page), and then those lists have been averaged to give you the official RotoSaurus Top 25. Check back everyday as we continue to roll out more lists!

2013 Fantasy Football Sleeper: Lamar Miller
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I truthfully have no idea how to begin this so I’m going to wing it and hope my ravings are somewhat coherent. This is the first in a series of sleeper articles, predicated on the belief that a trained monkey can draft the first 2 rounds of a fantasy football draft. The mid-late rounds are where your league is won and lost; my goal is to shine some light on guys I think will help you conquer those rounds and stand atop the smoldering heap when it’s all over. The first is my favorite sleeper for 2013: Lamar Miller.

I’ll hopefully be writing a series of articles detailing how I analyze and draft each position but running back is one in particular where the breakout players are actually pretty identifiable if you know where to look; Miller possesses a lot of those good characteristics and I’ll outline them below. Coming into the league, Miller was graded as a 1st/early 2nd round talent with a few knocks. Most notably: a shoulder injury, some character questions and a concern that his pass blocking (or lack thereof) would keep him off the field… but there was no denying his speed and playmaking ability. While he got nothing more than a handful of carries last year behind Reggie Bush (averaging 4.9 YPC), the Dolphins think so highly of him in 2013 that they let Bush leave in free agency and are giving Miller a crack at the gig. Here’s some reasons why you should care:

Lamar Miller is a major home run threat

If touches are going to be limited, there’s nothing I want more than a home run threat. Feed the ball enough times to guys like Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, C.J. Spiller, Adrian Peterson etc. and they will eventually make a big play and take one to the house. Even if they’re only getting 10-ish touches a game, they can still produce enough juice in that small sample to justify a fantasy start. I’d take a guy like that over someone getting 18 carries and averaging 3-point-nothing (like most of the RBs Philbin had while in Green Bay). While Miller might not possess the lateral agility of the guys listed above (although he’s working hard on it this off-season with Frank Gore), he’s every bit as much of a big play threat. Now, consider that if you just give Miller the touches he and Bush accumulated last year, he’s already getting the ball 20 times a game; that means ample opportunities to hit fantasy pay dirt for a guy with the skills to take advantage. See where this is going?

Daniel Thomas poses no threat to overtake Miller as starter

Sure, Thomas will vulture some goal line carries but every time he’s been given a workload, he’s struggled immensely (3.5 career YPC) and has justified his place on the bench. There’s nothing worse casino online than drafting a stud talent only to watch him buried behind a mediocre veteran for most of the year (see Spiller, C.J.) That’s a risk with any player who profiles as a first-time “feature” like Miller but don’t worry here. Miller doesn’t have a huge frame but he’s bigger, runs behinds his pads fairly well, has more power than the average speed back and looks poised to handle the workload. Even assuming Thomas keeps last year’s workload (100 touches), that still leaves over 300 touches there for the taking which is a very, very good thing.

The Dolphins are bending over backwards to praise Miller’s improvement in pass protection

Both Tannehill and Philbin have gone out of their way to praise Miller in this area which is absolutely huge for his development into a feature back. Almost 90% of Miller’s carries last year were on 1st/2nd down so clearly it was an area of concern that restricted his opportunities. If he’s showing an ability to stay on the field for all 3 downs, it solidifies the volume he requires to be a fantasy star. Obviously that’s a big if but I’m taking the Dolphins at their word for now. While he might not be an amazing receiver yet, he’s competent enough to produce in that category; at a level below Bush (who has been a glorified receiver out of the backfield for most of his career), but still relevant for fantasy purposes. If he ends up being a better receiver than advertised, his upside explodes.

The Dolphins offense is improving

Yes, losing Jake Long hurts on paper but in reality, Long was a shell of his former self last year. Jonathan Martin (cue the groans from Dolphins fans) scares the crap out of me at left tackle but I’d be more concerned that he’ll get Ryan Tannehill killed than Miller. Their shaky LT situation aside, Tannehill looks poised to take another step forward in his development and has new weapons in Wallace and Keller to grow with. The threat of Tannehill’s arm and Wallace’s speed should help open up the vertical parts of the Dolphins offense in a big way which will greatly benefit Miller by giving him space. Coupled with an improving defense that should keep the offense on the field more, Miami looks to improve in 2013 which opens up more opportunities for everyone.

Miller’s ADP: (Mock Draft Central – 39.00, RB18) (NFFC – 46.51, RB22)

Clearly the NFFC (1 PPR) is assuming that Miller isn’t going to be much Temple drivers ed of Motoring Clontarf reserves the right to terminate your access to any or all of the Communication Services at any time without notice for any reason whatsoever. of a pass catching back and it’s a fair assumption to be made given his history. Even assuming his ratio of rushes to receptions last year holds somewhat true (51 rushes, 6 receptions), with a bit of improvement this off-season and the increased workload he should still end up in the 20s which won’t cripple him. Why then is he going a full round behind guys like Ridley (who doesn’t catch any passes and may lose touches due to an increased workload for Shane Vereen) or David Wilson (who had even less receptions than Miller last year, has fumble issues and should get major carries siphoned by Andre Brown) just to name a couple? Don’t get me wrong, I think both could be valuable fantasy players this year but do I see an extra round of value there? Nope. It doesn’t make sense to me.

If Miller gets 300 touches (which seems like a legitimate possibility) and averages 5 yards per touch (which is easily doable by a guy with the breakaway speed for big plays), you’re looking at a 1,500 yard back with double digit touchdown potential. Sure, Miller is a risk given that he’s never handled a full workload before and his pass pro isn’t a proven commodity yet but I see fantasy star written all over him; he’s a perfect case of ability and opportunity colliding. When you’re drafting him in the 3rd/early 4th you’re paying for him as a decent RB2 but barring injury, I believe he ends the year near (and maybe in) the Top 10 at RB and is a star in the making. My love of Lamar Miller in fantasy this year might border on irrational but I’m all aboard his bandwagon. You should be too.

Update 8/20: The Dolphins are saying that the competition is neck and neck between Miller and Thomas for the starting job. Again, let me reiterate – Daniel Thomas is not good. He”s a big guy who runs as soft as Charmin and has both fumble and durability concerns. Jeff Ireland keeps talking Thomas up because he gave up 3 picks to move up to get him in the 2nd round a couple years ago and right now he looks like a colossal bust. I”m assuming that this talk is a combination of that and wanting to light a fire under Lamar Miller after a few pre-season mistakes because Miller is clearly more talented. Even if it does end up a timeshare at first, Thomas will likely play himself out of a role (again) or Miller”s talent will win out. Either way, as dumb as the Dolphins may be, don”t be too concerned yet. More than likely, this will just lower Miller”s ADP and make him an even more attractive bargain.

How Not To Get Screwed When Drafting
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I know this happens to you. It’s in the middle rounds, you’re targeting the soon-to-be breakout player of the year. But Lamar Miller’s name is called a pick before you, leaving you to wish death upon that manager’s mother as you scramble for another RB that won’t be nearly as good.

Say this with me now: “I won’t let this happen to me again.”

Good, now realize that it will. There’s nothing you can do to stop it. But what you’re about to read will reduce your chances this happens by about 75%.

Plus, this tool adds value to your draft and we know drafting is all about value. You win leagues because your 3rd round pick performs like a 1st rounder, your 7th round pick performs like a 2nd rounder, etc.

That”s two extra ways this tool will help you. It will definitely give you an extra inch, and we know when we add up all those inches, that’s going to make the fucking difference between winning and losing! (I watch that speech from “Any Given Sunday” before my drafts)

A quick history on how I developed this drafting technique. It”s from my days of playing Texas Hold ‘Em. Like poker, there are two states of a fantasy draft: when the action’s on you and when it isn”t. When it’s not the turn of good poker players, they’re studying their opponents, getting a read, and figuring out both the next moves before they happen. When it’s not the turn of bad poker players, they double check their cards and hope the flop hits their gut shot straight.

Drafting in fantasy football is the same. Chumps sit and watch the best players available list, hoping their targets will fall to them each round. Champs are scouting their opponents, keeping track of their opponent’s draft, and using this information to know what their opponent’s next move will be before it’s even made.

So here’s the tool. Before every one of my drafts, I take out a blank piece of paper, turn it sideways, and draw a column for each team in the league. Then I go down the left side and put down each position that is required in the league and bench spots.

During the draft, I keep track of every player drafted for every team. Once the middle rounds kick in, I have a solid idea of what each team manager is going to draft. I can see which manager takes the best available player on the board, which one has an idea of sleeper picks, which one targets the big names, and so on. This information doesn’t win drafts for sure, but it adds that extra inch.

Let me show you how.

You’re drafting 8th mobile casino in a 12 team league. It’s round 6. You’re stuck deciding between DeMarco Murray and Jordy Nelson. You check your sheet. Team 9 and 10 has drafted 3 RBs, 1 WR, and 1 QB. Team 11 has 2 RBs, 2 WRs, and 1 TE. Team 12 has 4 RBs and 1 WR. You decide to take the Nelson, knowing that there’s a great chance Murray swings back to you. You just added value to your team.

This tool is also great when using a tier list (If you’re not using a tier list when you draft, you should. I’ll explain why in another article). Heck, it’s even useful if you just use an overall best player available list. Here’s why.

Action is to you in the 4th round. You need an RB or WR. You look at your tier list or BPA and see Montee Ball and Darren Sproles as the last RBs before the drop off to Chris Ivory and Reggie Bush. You look at your WR list and notice there are about 7 WRs left in this tier. You take Ball or Sproles knowing that you they are great value at this pick and taking a WR here is not.

This method has obvious limitations in rounds 1 and 2. But you don’t make the playoffs from drafting great in these rounds, you make the playoffs from guys drafted in rounds 3 and beyond.

Using this tool, you’ll also know when you might have to reach on a specific target and when you don’t. If you’re targeting a sleeper pick, say Tavon Austin at pick 6 in the 8th round and teams 1-5 still need multiple WRs, you know you have to take him then or he’s going to be gone by the 9th round. But if the teams ahead of you are stacked at WR, you will get better value by filling your QB spot with Tony Romo.

This tool also lets you know if another opponent has the potential to steal a sleeper pick away from you. You’ll learn which opponents did their homework and you have to watch out for them and which opponents just draft the big named famous players. This will help you predict your opponent’s draft picks better, which helps you find value.

But wait! There’s more! Just keeping track of what the other teams draft gives you a great idea of when certain runs will take place. If you want a backup QB, you’ll have a good idea when they’ll start to go off the board. Same thing goes if you want to target a top defense or kicker. (Depending on your league scoring system, these can be important positions or a last pick throwaway).

So next time you draft, try this out. You will end up with a better team because of it. Plus, you can also start making fun of other team’s as soon as the draft ends. “You’re starting wide receivers are Eric Decker, T.Y. Hilton, and Chris Givens? Hahaha!”

Drafting the Position: How to Avoid Getting Blindsided at QB
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It’s not hard to end up with a handful of good players; if you don’t, you might want to consider a new hobby. Most teams will draft a roster full of several studs and some gaping holes that they try for the rest of the season to fill via waivers. While it’s possible to win like that if you play your cards right, the team that drafts a quality roster from top to bottom has a much easier path and has the luxury of using waivers to improve depth instead of fishing for starters. This comes from competent drafters that understand how they want to address each position, where they want to address it and maximizing the value that they’re getting with each pick. Let’s get the ball rolling with one of the most important positions to get right: QB. Hopefully this article gets you asking some of the questions that need to be considered during draft prep if you want to dominate. *Unless you’re in a 2 QB league because I don’t get along with that format and refuse to discuss it.* With that disclaimer out of the way, let’s roll…

Know thine scoring system

Comparing QB rankings from site to site is a royal pain, namely because it seems like every site has their own tweaks on how to score the position. WR/RB/TE are generally the same across the board; the only major variable being whether or not the league is PPR. QB is a whole different beast. The NFFC defaults are: 1 point per 20 passing yards, 6 per TD, -2 per INT, and the usually rushing defaults but what happens when you’re in a league that gives 4 points for TD and doesn’t care about INTs? Counts sacks as -1? 1 point per 25 passing yards? The list can go on infinitely depending on how quirky your commish is but the point is this: the ADP, rankings and importance of the position in general can change slightly OR significantly depending on how your league scores QBs. Does a runner like Cam or a passer like Peyton hold more weight in your league? It’s a point that is simple and understood by most but I’d feel remiss in excluding it because if you screw this up, you’re already behind most of your competition… and they will show you no mercy.

Understand the tiers

QBs usually go in clumps (tiers) because people race to get “their guy” as soon as a perceived run starts. Whether it’s based on tier, rankings or whatever, the ideal of drafting a one-starter position that can be forgotten about at the highest scoring position in fantasy football is on everyone’s mind; no one wants to mess up at QB. This year in the NFFC ADP the tiers at the moment look like this: (Rodgers/Brees) (P. Manning/Brady/Ryan/Newton) (Kaepernick/Stafford/Wilson/Luck/RGIII) (The rest). Use ADP or your own rankings but having points where the talent level dips significantly in your mind or in the minds of others is extremely important. As a tier begins to dwindle or you hit the end of one and onto the next, it’s a signal for you to act or at least consider the situation. By acting in a proactive manner, you can avoid the bungling the position and at the very least, be happy with your player even if the value isn’t perfect. Before being overzealous and forcing a QB to the top of the casino online draft however, you should really…

Choose your spot

For the QB position, evaluate: how many of these guys are you comfortable with as your starting QB? How risk averse are you at QB vs. other positions? At some point in every draft you need to take risk if you want to build a great roster. Decide what position (QB or otherwise) you feel most confident in gambling on and act accordingly. If you’re risk averse at QB and you like to have a sure thing, target the Tier 1 guys. You know what you’re getting: a safe proven player with a known ceiling. Realize though that because of their low upside, you’re going to have to gamble elsewhere to make up for the fact that you used one of your biggest assets on a QB and that his value doesn’t have much room to grow. Generally every Top 12/14 QB drafted is going to start for his team, have the ball in his hands most of the game and be in the top half of the players nbso at his position. That’s a VERY different level of confidence vs. other positions where questions about playing time, touches, utilization, etc. all come into play. If you feel that you can make it up later with sleepers or you have confidence in drafting the other positions then great; just be aware, again, that drafting a safe player at one position necessitates taking risk in another.

The flip side of the coin is deciding to take your risk at QB and loading up on other positions. There’s a TON of upside in the later tier QBs (more so this year than any year in recent memory in my opinion). Analyze, analyze, analyze. Look at 2nd half trends, offensive improvements, room to grow, etc. Taking the right guy later while spending early picks on studs at RB/WR/TE could lead to a fantasy championship. There’s also the risk that if your guys flops, the highest scoring position in the game is an underperformer for you. A top QB will generally outscore top performers at every other position (depending on the scoring system obviously). You’re locking that performance in with a top guy. If you decide not to take that path; understand your potential downside. If you bust at QB, it’s harder to recover than at any other position, namely because most QBs keep their jobs throughout the season, injuries aren’t that likely and most of the top talent is already snatched up.

Determining where your risk aversion lies related to QB is incredibly important because once you determine it and the path you’re taking, it will impact your entire draft.

Don’t be dumb with your backup

Every year, the fantasy gods cry because resources are wasted on backup QBs while other teams starve at the position. If you draft someone like Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees, there is ZERO reason (unless you’re in a trade league and then by all means, ignore me here) for you to draft a guy like Eli Manning as a backup. Those two have missed a combined 4 games over 14 seasons and you should fully expect to only need a bye week replacement that can be found on waivers or later in the draft. If you’re intending to play matchups with a top QB, you’re doing it wrong. Don’t do it just to bet against a 2008 Brady scenario either. You’ll ruin far more leagues by wasting the value than you’ll save by betting on a ridiculously rare outcome. You’re most likely to get injured at RB and WR and TE. Draft a backup there instead.

So, when should you draft a good backup QB? If your starter…

– Is unproven and a risky upside play
– Is a low ceiling player and you want to gamble on some upside
– Is an injury risk and you don’t expect him to make it through a season unscathed
– If there’s no one else you like at all and the value is absurd
– If “that guy” is sandbagging taking a starter into the twilight of the draft and you want to punish him

I’m probably forgetting something but not drafting a good backup for a “question mark QB” is even worse than wasting an asset for ultimate security. You know the odds are significant that with RGIII you could see your playoff hopes destroyed by a knee injury. Don’t take that risk. Get a legitimate backup and breathe easier every week.

(Side note but not worth its own bullet: Know who has drafted a QB already. If no one in between you and your next pick needs one (and it’s not early enough for them to consider a backup), you can let it ride until that pick and maximize value. Same if there are 2 you like and only 1 above you needs one, etc. It’ll work every time unless people violate the above point and draft a guy like RGIII to back up Rodgers. In that case, scowl at them intensely.)

That’s about it on QBs. Understand the players and their upside/downside, choose your strategy and targets, then execute while mitigating your risk as much as possible and maintaining value. This may be basic strategy for every position but nowhere is it more important than at QB, where you likely shape your entire draft based on your decisions. Choose wisely.

What To Expect When You're Expecting…For Fantasy Football
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A quick thank you first to the team of RotoSaurus for bringing myself and Spectre. This should be a fun little endeavor we are about to embark on.

That said, I want to take a minute in my first article for RotoSaurus to set expectations about what you, the reader, will get from my fantasy football articles. Wouldn’t it be nice if players did this for you?
-If Greg Jennings said he’ll play all 16 games and get about 1000 yards and 10 TDs as a Viking
-If Percy Harvin and Marshawn Lynch said they can put up top 5 RB and top 10 WR stats together (Edit: I wrote this before Harvin had hip surgery, how nice of him to say he”ll be out for almost the whole season now?)
-If Larry Fitzgerald said he’ll bounce back to a top 5 WR

Wouldn’t that be nice?

Instead they don’t. And you’re left to research, study, prepare, and then hope everything you expect comes to pass. See, I’m making this easy for you. Here are 5 expectations about my writing for this season.

1. I’m not a big numbers guy (I’ll leave that to Dusty and Spectre). Before you call me a hack and quit reading, let me explain.

There’s this huge trend going on of advanced metrics and crunching numbers in some formula in hopes of predicting the future. Read any fantasy article on a major sports website and these advanced numbers are everywhere. But this isn’t blackjack where if you know the cards you can create the formula to make millions. If it were, every “fantasy football expert” would be in Vegas.

The small problem with numbers is there will always be numbers supporting either side of the argument. Here’s one example. This RB’s average yard per carry has gone from 4.9 to 4.4 to 4.1 over the past 3 years. He’s had the most offensive touches in those three years as well, so it makes sense he’s breaking down. Plus, the coach says he expects to use the backup RB more this season. But I bet you’ll draft Arian Foster with a top 5 pick. So why did you just ignore all those numbers showing his decline? Because like me, you know numbers aren’t everything.

So I”ll include some numbers when it makes sense, but I”m not making a new formula”s to predict out of 10,000 simulations, Lamar Miller will average .821 TDs against the Browns defense in week 1 anytime soon.

2. I’m not going to reference points or “this player ranks 7th in points scored.” Each of my 5 leagues has a different scoring system. One gives 6 points for any TD, one gives 4 for a throwing TD and 6 for anyone else, one gives points based on how far away the TD happened, one gives bonus points when an RB or WR breaks 100 yards, one gives kickers a bonus the further the kick, blah blah blah. The only online casino thing that matters to you is your league and your scoring system.

3. I’m a big believer in best online casino efficiency so I’ll keep my articles short and simple. Like “look for contract year players, like Jermichael Finley and Hakeem Nicks, to be surprise studs this year. Don’t reach for players who got paid, like Mike Wallace and Victor Cruz.”

4. I won’t claim to be the greatest fantasy football expert because there’s no such thing (see Vegas line above). But I do get more right than I get wrong, so that’s worth…well, whatever you think it’s worth. It’s not my opinion that counts here, it’s yours. Some people think if you write about fantasy football you should win every league you play in. Others realize that fallacy and expect a little bit of insight and some food for thought each week. That’s what you’ll get from me.

5. In my articles, I’ll include some thoughts on the leagues I’m in and my teams as well. Last year, I played in 5 leagues and made the playoffs in 4 of them. (the one league where I didn’t make the playoffs, 6 of my first 9 picks missed about 50 games combined because of injuries. I should have drafted better.)

And of those 4 playoff bound teams, I didn’t win one single championship. Maybe my team can’t finish. Maybe I’m like Peyton Manning and perform great in the regular season and then choke in the playoffs. But that”s just one year of many.

A bonus 6th expectation if you will. I expect this season I’ll win a few games because of miraculous plays on the field (in a scoring-only league in 2007, I picked up Rob Bironas as a bye week replacement. He proceeded to kick 8 field goals and scored more points than my opponent’s entire team.) I expect I’ll lose a few games for the same reason (who hasn’t won their playoff game Sunday only to find out Monday a sack that gave your defense 2 points was reversed to a QB run, and thus you lose by 1 instead of win by 1?)

This season, I expect to talk smack to other managers, get insulted for my team names, try to rip people off in trades, think I drafted a sleeper only to watch him suck during the regular season, pick up free agents that win me one week and lose me the next, waste hours researching which RB to start week 9 and then start the wrong one, hope that a team gets stopped on 3rd and goal so my kicker can get a field goal instead of an extra point, the list goes on.

Most importantly, I expect to have fun with my friends because that’s why I play fantasy football. (Besides, I already know I’m going to beat them)

RotoSaurus Football Has Arrived!
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A new era has begun here at RotoSaurus…the fantasy football world has a new trusted source for rankings and advice! We are extremely excited to bring our many years of experience to all of you; stay with us as we guide your team to fantasy gold!

For now, you can check out the casino skill position depth charts to the left of the page as Forelopig kan du kun finne automaten hos norske spilleautomater . well as our first articles, with many to come in the next few days! You can expect positional rankings and other tidbits very soon. Thanks for joining us and good luck with your drafts!

-Dusty, Brad, and Spectre