Assumptions are a part of life. Take this whole “I’m glad to be writing articles for RotoSaurus this year.”
That statement alone involves two big assumptions.
1. I will enjoy writing for RotoSaurus each week. Our relationship will not end up like the gentleman from Jurassic Park who tries to hide in the bathroom.
2. You, the reader, will find just enough positives in my articles to come back each week to read some more and maybe, just maybe, re-tweet an article or post one on your Facebook wall.
Those statements are assumptions because I can’t predict the future. This opportunity between RotoSaurus, you, and myself could be the best ménage a trois in history. It’s also possible this could end up like Tiger Woods, Elin Nordegren, and his SUV.
Now, of course I researched RotoSaurus and invested time to make the best decision, but in the end, those are still two big assumptions. In order to not make an ass of RotoSaurus and me, I have a backup plan. I didn”t quit my day job.
The same assumptions take place in fantasy football. When you draft a player, you do so based on certain hopes and aspirations. Sure you try to avoid assumptions as much as possible with thorough research (I hope). But staying healthy and repeat or improved performance is always iffy. So if you don’t want to end up in the bottom half of your league, on draft day, remember to cover your ass.
Let’s look at an example from (I’ll give Bob the best credit card for faithfully presenting David’s arguments as a unified whole). one of my drafts last year. I drafted LeSean McCoy with the 8th overall pick. Now I wasn”t thinking he would replicate his 2010 numbers, but I assumed if he got about 20-25 touches a game and didn”t get injured, he would put up 1500 total yards and 10 TDs. You know what happened. I made a huge ass of myself.
The biggest assumptions involve players taken in the first round. So be smart about it. Later on in the draft go for high risk, high reward players at the same position as your number one pick. In the 4th and 5th rounds, I took Adrian Peterson and Trent Richardson. Ass covered.
Another assumption I had last year was thinking Carson Palmer would be a great sleeper pick at QB. Again, I assumed casino spiele the second half of his 2010 season was legit, Denarious Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey’s speed would let him throw long (Palmer averaged 0.63 YPA higher with D&D than with Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh in Cincy’s prime!) and Palmer would throw a lot because their defense was horrible. Well, the Raiders defense was horrible, and so was Palmer. Me=ass again.
But I remember to CYA. I took a high risk, high reward player as a backup QB in case Palmer flamed out. The round after I drafted Palmer I took RGIII. Ass=covered.
That draft was for the same team and I made the playoffs.
Looking ahead to this year, your first round pick and your starting QB (which may or may not be the same pick depending on your scoring system) carry the biggest assumptions of all. Even with all the research in the world, in fantasy football, crap does not discriminate. It can fall on anyone at any time. So make sure your back up plan is in place.
If you take Jamaal Charles in the first round this year thinking Andy Reid will turn him loose, don’t be afraid to follow him up with Chris Johnson or David Wilson a couple rounds later. If you draft any of the Big 4 “2nd Year QBs” (Kap, Wilson, RGIII, or Luck) take a chance on Vick, Dalton, or Bradford in case of injury or a sophomore slump.
In one league, one manager’s team was in the bottom third and the manager was making excuses why his team was so bad instead of near the top. This is an actual quote from that person. “It is a 100% legitimate reason when 4 of your top 5 draft picks are injured or severely under performing.”
Don’t be that guy. That’s only a legitimate reason if you’re a bad drafter. Injuries happen every year. Under performing happens every year. This year, don”t make excuses. Just cover your ass.