Take

Trent Richardson (ADP 8.84, RB9): Richardson is a hard guy to include because the injury risk could make this blow up in my face but I’m going to do it anyway, mainly because I could write about the Browns all day… and because he’s going to be a fantasy football stud. Norv Turner (more on him later) has come out and said he’s targeting at least 300 carries and 60 catches for Richardson this year. Assuming he’s healthy enough to average even a measly 4.0 YPC (last year’s 3.6 was a fluke brought on by playing hurt), that’s enough volume for over 1600 all purpose yards, extra points in a PPR, double digit TDs and if he can improve his YPC even more, the sky is the limit. If that doesn’t sell you enough, take a look at what Norv’s RBs have done with him as OC:

1991 – Emmitt Smith: 1563 rushing yards (led NFL), 258 receiving yards, 13 TDs
1992 – Emmitt Smith: 1713 rushing yards (led NFL), 335 receiving yards, 18 TDs
1993 – Emmitt Smith: 1486 rushing yards (led NFL), 414 receiving yards, 10 TDs
2001 – LaDainian Tomlinson: 1236 rushing yards, 367 receiving yards, 10 TDs
2002 – Ricky Williams: 1853 rushing yards (led NFL), 363 receiving yards, 17 TDs
2003 – Ricky Williams: 1372 rushing yards, 351 receiving yards, 10 TDs
2006 – Frank Gore: 1695 rushing yards, 485 receiving yards, 9 TDs
2013 – Trent Richardson: ???

You’re reading that right: with Norv as OC, his starting RB has never put up below 1,600 all-purpose yards and double digit touchdowns (except that slacker Gore who only got 9 TDs as he ran for 2,180 APY). His RBs are more likely to put up 1,800 APY and lead the NFL in rushing than they are online casino canada to miss those marks. Yes, we’re talking top notch talent putting those stats up but Richardson is no exception. He has the ability, pedigree and offensive line to ascend to elite status this year. The health is the big question mark because he’s been mostly kept out of the pre-season thus far but make no mistake… if he stays on the field, he’s a superstar in the making in this system.

Maurice Jones-Drew (ADP 28.49, RB17): I’ll get it out of the way – yes, the Jaguars are terrible and Jones-Drew is coming off a big injury. I don’t care, I’m drafting him anyway at this ADP. The Jaguars have been mediocre since 2007 and MJD has still found a way to put up the fantasy numbers. Supposedly his foot is healthy, he looks good in camp and he has all the extra motivation in the world to light it up this year. After his contract dispute before last season’s injury shortened campaign, MJD is entering a contract year and will have to prove himself once more. Don’t bet against him, especially given how strong willed he is and the kind of numbers he has put up in the past on mediocre teams. Consider what you’re getting around this ADP if you go elsewhere. He’s going in early NFFC drafts after Darren McFadden (is there a bigger injury risk in football?) and barely ahead of DeMarco Murray who himself looks like he’s anything but durable. MJD has easy RB1 upside and if he stays healthy the entire year (as it seems he will) could be a Top 10 back without breaking a sweat. To me, that’s a bargain in the 3rd round.

Lamar Miller (ADP 46.51, RB22): I’ve already written Miller up in a sleeper article so I won’t go on here but yes; I like him that much this year.

Leave

DeMarco Murray (ADP 31.03, RB 18): I’m really not sure who is taking DeMarco Murray at an early 3rd round ADP but if they are, they’re probably doing it with visions in their heads of that 4 game stretch in 2011 where Murray ripped off 601 yards and 2 TDs in only 75 carries (8 YPC!) with 80 receiving yards on top of it all. I’m here to advise you scrub that time from your memory and focus on today. Since then, in 14 games, Murray has carried the ball 225 times for 886 yards (3.93 YPC), 4 TDs and piled on 330 receiving yards. Decent enough though unspectacular numbers for fantasy purposes until you realize that he’s missed 9 games in the past 2 seasons with injuries and has had a minor hamstring injury already this off-season. Yes, the Cowboys look like they may run more in 2013 but Murray’s style of play simply gets him hurt. It’s impossible to take on Murray without expecting him to miss games. When you factor that in with his exorbitant price tag and the fact that he hasn’t been an elite player lately even when on the field, I’m looking elsewhere at the RB position.