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Larry Fitzgerald (ADP 29.7, WR10): I get it. I feel your pain. I found myself with my hand caught in the cookie jar last year when I tried to bid Larry Fitzgerald up in an auction (when I wanted nothing to do with him) and ended my playoffs with him on the bench. One of the hardest things to do in fantasy football is to try to look at something objectively when you’ve been burned but I’m going to be brave and say it: when his QB situation isn’t absolute trash, Larry Fitzgerald is a Top 5 WR. Literally. Excluding his rookie season, Larry Fitzgerald has not been in the Top 5 in WR points three times in his career: in 2006 (Matt Leinart), 2010 (Derek Anderson/John Skelton) and 2012 when he dealt with one of the worst QB situations I’ve ever seen (Skelton/Kolb/Hoyer/Lindley). This year he has Carson Palmer who, while turnover prone, airs it out like crazy as well and shouldn’t resemble last year’s disaster. Bruce Arians had Andrew Luck passing over 4,000 yards last year and there’s no reason to think Palmer can’t as well. Floyd and Roberts should be improved enough to draw some coverage away from Fitz and give him more legitimate opportunities. All this is to say: I’m not betting against Larry Fitzgerald to finish out of the Top 5 again. He’s still young (29) and his skill set hasn’t diminished, he’s Arizona’s go-to guy by far and he’s incredibly consistent when his QB situation is acceptable. The fact that you can get him in the 3rd and add nearly a full round of value vs. players without his incredible track record is icing on the cake. It’s OK Larry; I’m not holding 2012 against you.

Pierre Garcon (ADP 63.95, WR24): When we first saw Pierre Garcon in 2012, he had piled up 109 receiving yards and a TD… before halftime. Unfortunately, Garcon hurt his toe hauling in a long TD catch and it bothered him for most of the year along with a shoulder injury that required surgery. Out of casino online curiosity, I did my best to try to take last year’s numbers and project them to a full season, sampling only the games when both RGIII and Garcon were actually healthy (Garcon’s stinkers almost exclusively came when he wasn’t recovered from injury). The end result ended up being a staggering output to the tune of 80 receptions, 1300 yards casino pa natet and 10 TDs. Understandably, getting both Garcon and RGIII healthy and on the field together seems like the planets aligning these days but consider: Garcon is fully recovered from his shoulder surgery, says the foot issue he played through is a non-issue to play through now and RGIII is ahead of schedule rehabbing his knee and cleared for Week 1. Should RGIII air the ball out more as has been suggested, Garcon will be the primary beneficiary as RGIII has mentioned several times that Garcon will be his go-to guy and crutch. Of all NFL receivers, Garcon was targeted 3rd most per route run behind Brandon Marshall and Percy Harvin (kudos to ESPN Stats and Info) which speaks to both their chemistry and Garcon’s upside as a major target. If Garcon enters the season looking as good as he supposedly has in camp, he could be a major steal at his ADP and even a breakout star; don’t sleep on Garcon just because we didn’t see a lot of him last year.

Leave

Marques Colston (ADP 46.33, WR17): I can understand the infatuation with Colston to some degree; he’s produced 1,000 yards and at least 7 TDs over the past 4 seasons. However, with where his ADP is this year, I’m staying away. While his nagging foot injuries are a concern; the main reason I want nothing to do with Colston where he’s going is his lack of upside. While Brees should be counted on to throw roughly the same number of passes, there’s just no room for more targets. Graham, Thomas, Sproles, Moore, new TE2 Watson and even newly re-acquired Meachem are all going to see their fair share of passes. Not only does that represent downside to his 83 catches last year, it’s going to mean he disappears in games. In 2012 alone, he had 9 games with 4 or fewer catches; those numbers may work for a speedster but it’ll give a possession guy like Colston problems. With no room for target growth and plenty of room for his targets to shrink, I see no reason why he’s going in the 4th round. Simply put, there are better options out there.