A quick thank you first to the team of RotoSaurus for bringing myself and Spectre. This should be a fun little endeavor we are about to embark on.
That said, I want to take a minute in my first article for RotoSaurus to set expectations about what you, the reader, will get from my fantasy football articles. Wouldn’t it be nice if players did this for you?
-If Greg Jennings said he’ll play all 16 games and get about 1000 yards and 10 TDs as a Viking
-If Percy Harvin and Marshawn Lynch said they can put up top 5 RB and top 10 WR stats together (Edit: I wrote this before Harvin had hip surgery, how nice of him to say he”ll be out for almost the whole season now?)
-If Larry Fitzgerald said he’ll bounce back to a top 5 WR
Wouldn’t that be nice?
Instead they don’t. And you’re left to research, study, prepare, and then hope everything you expect comes to pass. See, I’m making this easy for you. Here are 5 expectations about my writing for this season.
1. I’m not a big numbers guy (I’ll leave that to Dusty and Spectre). Before you call me a hack and quit reading, let me explain.
There’s this huge trend going on of advanced metrics and crunching numbers in some formula in hopes of predicting the future. Read any fantasy article on a major sports website and these advanced numbers are everywhere. But this isn’t blackjack where if you know the cards you can create the formula to make millions. If it were, every “fantasy football expert” would be in Vegas.
The small problem with numbers is there will always be numbers supporting either side of the argument. Here’s one example. This RB’s average yard per carry has gone from 4.9 to 4.4 to 4.1 over the past 3 years. He’s had the most offensive touches in those three years as well, so it makes sense he’s breaking down. Plus, the coach says he expects to use the backup RB more this season. But I bet you’ll draft Arian Foster with a top 5 pick. So why did you just ignore all those numbers showing his decline? Because like me, you know numbers aren’t everything.
So I”ll include some numbers when it makes sense, but I”m not making a new formula”s to predict out of 10,000 simulations, Lamar Miller will average .821 TDs against the Browns defense in week 1 anytime soon.
2. I’m not going to reference points or “this player ranks 7th in points scored.” Each of my 5 leagues has a different scoring system. One gives 6 points for any TD, one gives 4 for a throwing TD and 6 for anyone else, one gives points based on how far away the TD happened, one gives bonus points when an RB or WR breaks 100 yards, one gives kickers a bonus the further the kick, blah blah blah. The only online casino thing that matters to you is your league and your scoring system.
3. I’m a big believer in best online casino efficiency so I’ll keep my articles short and simple. Like “look for contract year players, like Jermichael Finley and Hakeem Nicks, to be surprise studs this year. Don’t reach for players who got paid, like Mike Wallace and Victor Cruz.”
4. I won’t claim to be the greatest fantasy football expert because there’s no such thing (see Vegas line above). But I do get more right than I get wrong, so that’s worth…well, whatever you think it’s worth. It’s not my opinion that counts here, it’s yours. Some people think if you write about fantasy football you should win every league you play in. Others realize that fallacy and expect a little bit of insight and some food for thought each week. That’s what you’ll get from me.
5. In my articles, I’ll include some thoughts on the leagues I’m in and my teams as well. Last year, I played in 5 leagues and made the playoffs in 4 of them. (the one league where I didn’t make the playoffs, 6 of my first 9 picks missed about 50 games combined because of injuries. I should have drafted better.)
And of those 4 playoff bound teams, I didn’t win one single championship. Maybe my team can’t finish. Maybe I’m like Peyton Manning and perform great in the regular season and then choke in the playoffs. But that”s just one year of many.
A bonus 6th expectation if you will. I expect this season I’ll win a few games because of miraculous plays on the field (in a scoring-only league in 2007, I picked up Rob Bironas as a bye week replacement. He proceeded to kick 8 field goals and scored more points than my opponent’s entire team.) I expect I’ll lose a few games for the same reason (who hasn’t won their playoff game Sunday only to find out Monday a sack that gave your defense 2 points was reversed to a QB run, and thus you lose by 1 instead of win by 1?)
This season, I expect to talk smack to other managers, get insulted for my team names, try to rip people off in trades, think I drafted a sleeper only to watch him suck during the regular season, pick up free agents that win me one week and lose me the next, waste hours researching which RB to start week 9 and then start the wrong one, hope that a team gets stopped on 3rd and goal so my kicker can get a field goal instead of an extra point, the list goes on.
Most importantly, I expect to have fun with my friends because that’s why I play fantasy football. (Besides, I already know I’m going to beat them)